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Jupiter, Saturn and the three faces of 2020

The Jupiter-Saturn cycleI just wanted to clarify my previous article on the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction.  As I have discussed, Jupiter and Saturn are moving towards a conjunction, which becomes exact on December 21 2020.  The world is moving towards recession and depression.  It would have happened without COVID-19, but the virus accelerated the pace.

Jupiter and Saturn are important planets when considering the business cycle, because they embody the principles of expansion and contraction.  From the Earth’s perspective, there are periods in their orbit where they go backwards, and this means that their angle of separation doesn’t move in a straight line.  From the perspective of 2020, the year started with Jupiter and Saturn moving steadly towards the conjunction, and on May 19 they reached their peak closeness, at 4.68 degrees.  This was a local minima, and from May 19 the planets started moving further apart.  We can therefore see the period from January 1 to May 19 as being the first phase of the disaster, with the world and its economy moving to the brink.

From May 19 to August 30 Jupiter and Saturn are moving apart.  In many quarters there is a feeling of relief, that the world is now recovering.  This particularly applies to the markets, but people in general are thinking that they can get back to work, as the situation normalizes.  However, it’s a zone of false optimism.  After August 30 Jupiter and Saturn move rapidly towards their December 21 conjunction.  It is at this stage that it becomes clear that there is no recovery, regardless of COVID, and that we need to prepare for the absolute worst.  And after December 21 we’ll start to discover what the absolute worst really is.

{ 5 comments… add one }
  • Alex July 11, 2020, 2:07 am

    Got it. According to my favorite market strategist this scenario is possible but not likely. The ongoing recovery should be temporary, both for the economy and for the markets, and resembles what happened after the crash of October 1929, followed by a few months of apparent improvement before the further escalation of the crisis. The rally from March to today is just a bear market rally and the wisest thing is to take advantage of it to sell everything.

    There are other two scenarios… lets’ see if Astrology is right.

    • Archie Dunlop July 11, 2020, 2:23 am

      What is the likely scenario? I am suggesting the feelings of optimism many people are feeling is temporary, and has less than two months to run. And yes, I am saying it is a bear market rally, which I think should run out of the steam by Labor Day in the US.

      • Alex July 12, 2020, 8:54 am

        The second scenario is bullish because MMT. Money is infinite and the public deficit is expandable at will in conditions of lack of inflation. On the micro level, Covid accelerates the disruption of traditional manufacturing sectors and forces them to restructure or die. Therefore, stay invested in high growth companies and hedge short term bear market trends.

        The third scenario is bullish too. It takes note of a cyclical rupture. We are not in a continuation of the previous cycle but in a radically new phase. The recession has been very heavy and it is going to start a new great cycle. If the past ten years have seen the power of technology, in the next years surely we will see something different, although we still don’t know what… traditional cyclicals or stocks with a much higher dividend than the yield on government bonds?

  • Gaetan Montreuil July 14, 2020, 8:23 pm

    Archie is wright I follow his bit of advice….. the Bradley siderograph and the crossing of the 10d EMA and the 21 dSMA combined with MACD and RSI.
    August 19th 2020 is coming soon……..when I get nervous.


    • Archie Dunlop July 14, 2020, 8:28 pm

      Thanks for the comment! Although I think I am right, it doesn’t mean that I am right. And don’t invest, disinvest, or speculate on the basis of what I say.

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