Cryptocurrencies might have crashed to a fraction of their January values, but they haven’t gone away. There’s a huge industry based on them – for example broking, mining and consultancy – and there is a general feeling amongst cryptocurrency holders that the 2018 falls were a temporary aberration. Give it time, and we’ll have new highs.
This raises a question about time frame. When exactly is the bull market in cryptos going to resume? Well, there are four main scenarios that I am considering:
1. Cryptos start moving up strongly at the beginning of November, as the bull market resumes. The catalyst will be Jupiter moving into Sagittarius, on November 8. The conjunction between Mercury and Jupiter on December 20 will fuel the rise.
2. Cryptos ignore Jupiter’s movement into Sagittarius, and continue to languish. It is not until late January or early February of 2019 that the new bull market starts. This follows the pattern of the last few years, where the year’s headline asset revealed itself in January or February. In 2016 it was gold and silver miners, in 2017 it was cryptos, in 2018 the US Dollar.
3. The bear market in cryptos continues in 2019, and probably into the early 2020s. We can’t expect anything else, as the global economy moves towards the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction in late 2020. Most of the alt coins disappear, but a few of the larger coins survive and prosper.
4. Cryptocurrencies never recover. It was a fad, and they all go to zero, including Bitcoin.
On the surface Jupiter going into Sagittarius in November 2018 is exciting. Jupiter is the planet of optimism, and Sagittarius the sign of speculation. The last time Jupiter was in Sagittatarius was from November 2006 through to December 2007. At the end of 2007 the financial crisis started, so Jupiter in Sagittarius had a mixed influence. However for most of 2007 the markets were OK, and it might well be that Jupiter in Sagittarius will allow the cryptocurrencies to make solid gains. Heck, we might have even hit some all-time highs!
Yet the chances of this happening are low. Not on the basis of astrology, but on the basis of experience and common sense. In the markets, once a bubble has burst, asset euphoria takes years to repeat itself. I remember the dotcom bubble, that burst in the Spring of 2000. People made and lost fortunes, and when everything went down the pan they couldn’t believe it. They thought that the halcyon days must return. And indeed there was a partial recovery over the Summer and Autumn of 2000. It seemed possible that fortunes could again be made. Then in 2001 and 2002 tech shares got smashed, and lingering hope was replaced with bitter despair.
You could of course argue that cryptocurrencies are different. Over the last nine years or so there have been many bubbles and crashes in Bitcoin, and it has always recovered. But that was before every man and his dog discovered Bitcoin. Knowledge of cryptos is in the public domain, and the investing public are well aware that they’re a dangerous asset.
The 2000 dot com crash was directly related to the May 2000 Jupiter-Saturn conjunction. Jupiter and Saturn are “the great chronocrators”, the rulers of time, and as a pair they set the beat of the economic cycle. The next Jupiter-Saturn conjunction is on December 21 2020, just after Donald Trump gets re-elected to the White House. This is a hostile period for the markets, and cryptocurrencies are likely to be under the cosh along with everything else.
On a more positive note for cryptocurrencies, the 2020 Jupiter-Saturn conjunction may represent a new beginning, especially as it takes place close to the Winter Solstice, in the first degree of the sign Aquarius. It’s the dawning of the age of AI and machines, where the Internet of Things reaches its full potential. Many cryptocurrencies will fall by the wayside, but the select few will survive and prosper. And holding the right cryptocurrency in 2030 will be like holding Amazon in 2018. A lot of money to be made, but a lot of pain to get there.